Table 9 Sensitivity analysis

Therapeutic changes in the TTZ cohort

 Base case

  Zx daily for 9 years in the triple therapy with Zx cohort

$859

0.162

$5302

  Zx daily for 2 years only in the triple therapy with Zx cohort

(−$1318)

0.162

(−$8148)

  Two additional treatments: bevacizumab, PDT and dexamethasone, years 3–9 in both cohorts

$859

0.162

$5,312

  Costs in both cohorts are doubled

$1718

0.162

$10,623

  Zx cost over 9 years is doubled from $30/month to $60/month

$3746

0.162

$23,154

  Zx cost/month for cost-utility ratio of $50,000/QALY

$150

0.162

0 $50,000

  Zx cost/month for cost-utility ratio of $100,000/QALY

$318

0.162

$100,000

  Zx cost/month for cost-utility ratio of $158,000/QALY(WHO upper limit for cost-effectiveness = 3× GDP per capita)

$513

0.162

$158,000

Altering patient value gains associated with TTZ

 Doubling patient value gains in both cohorts

$859

0.324

$2,656

 Halving the patient value gain from Zx

$859

0.081

$10,623

 Loss of Zx benefit after year 2 with 2 years of Zx therapy in the TTZ cohort

(−$1318)

0.036

(−$36,665)

 Loss of Zx benefit after year 2, with 9 years of Zx therapy in the TTZ cohort

$859

0.036

$23,892

 Zx incremental QALY gain for $50,000/QALY

$859

0.017

$50,000

 Zx incremental QALY gain for $100,000/QALY

$859

0.0086

$100,000

 Zx incremental QALY gain required for $158,000/QALY (WHO upper limit for cost-effectiveness = 3× 2015 US GDP per capita)

$859

0.0054

$158,000

Integrating the therapeutic QALY gain and costs saved by TTZ decreasing the onset of neovascular AMD in the fellow eye: combined-eye model

 Incremental cost-utility

  Zx daily for 9 years in the TTZ cohort vs. TT cohort—assumes that TTZ yields an absolute risk reduction of CNV in the 2nd eye of 30.3 %

(−$2291)

0.362

(−$6332)

 Average cost-utility

  Zx daily for 9 years in the TTZ cohort vs. TT cohort: assumes TTZ reduces the absolute risk reduction of CNV in the 2nd eye by 30.3 %

7249

0.7212

$10,052